Nerd alert: all others skip to the boldface..
As it happens, I noticed erratic results on the falling steel poppers at the ITPSC range and did some calculations of the various bullet momenta with various types & sizes of steel.
(For those that don't know me, I'm the resident physics prof, and this is a serious post)
Bottom line is the problem is the WIND, which at ITPSC hits the targets full on with our famous SW "breeze" and requires adjusting the poppers so not to fall just from the wind. With no wind, a 9mm will knock down any properly adjusted steel falling target.
The wind produces a force ( in pounds) on a flat surface of 1 sq ft = 0.00492 times (wind speed in mph) squared
So a 30 mph gust on an approx 1 sq ft full size pepper popper produces a force of about 4 1/2 pounds, which is MORE than the force produced assuming total momentum transfer from a minor power 9mm bullet. The power factor is a pretty good predictor (not exact) of steel knockdown force. There are reductions from the max theoretical based on bullet composition, and the angle you hit the steel is critical.
So what I though I was seeing when shooting pepper poppers with 9mm was predicted from the math:
If a pepper popper is adjusted not to fall in a wind gust over 20mph, you better hope you get some help from the wind when you shoot with 9mm. If the wind suddenly drops, the 9mm may not knock it down by itself.
Based on this, I have stopped using the full size pepper poppers in IDPA at ITPSC, particularly since most guns shot in IDPA are minor power.
The mini pepper and mini classic poppers are small enough that the wind would have to gust near 40mph for the same effect, and trying to use poppers in that much wind is a total PIA, as anyone who has tried it knows. Not to mention the paper targets flapping around and coming loose.
We did shoot one IDPA match with the wind gusting over 50mph, using no steel, and quadruple stapling the paper targets: most of the target heads were ripped off by the wind, and half a dozen paper targets still got ripped off and disappeared.